BIRTH RATES: A COMPLEX, BRUTAL REALITY

Comms for Schools founder Richard Tilley looks at how school leaders should interpret birth rate statistics to get a true picture of the devastation they will bring to budgets - and why this is a crisis that will likely endure for decades

Live births and the TFR: How do we get a true picture of the crisis?

The decline in UK birth rates is a complex demographic shift, not just a simple reduction in the number of births. It's a trend with far-reaching consequences for the education sector.

To fully understand its impact on schools, we must distinguish between two key measures: the live birth rate and the Total Fertility Rate (TFR).

When people talk in the media about the birth rate, the figure they are normally referring to is the number of live births – the number of children born in a specific area (e.g., a city, county, or country) during a given period (usually a year).

For the purposes of this piece we will refer to the number of live births as the live birth rate.

The TFR, on the other hand, is a more refined and insightful measure. It represents the average number of children a woman would be expected to have over her entire reproductive lifespan (typically considered ages 15-49), assuming that current age-specific fertility rates remain constant.

The TFR is a hypothetical measure, but it's a powerful tool for understanding long-term population trends.

The TFR is particularly relevant for schools. It is relevant because the live birth rate can be skewed by housebuilding – and housebuilding almost always means new schools built with developer contributions to local infrastructure.

In essence, new homes mean extra capacity in the school system.

The live birth rate can mask the reality of the problems schools are facing. The TFR gives you a glimpse behind that mask.

In terms of wider society, a TFR of approximately 2.1 is considered the "replacement level" in developed countries. This means that, on average, each woman needs to have 2.1 children to replace herself and her partner, accounting for some child mortality.

A TFR consistently below 2.1 indicates that the population will eventually decline, without significant immigration.

Why is population decline bad for us all?

It is bad because it will eventually lead to a society/economy in which there are not enough young people to practically and financially look after their parents and grandparents.

Rises and falls: What causes birth rates to change?

Any graph looking at the birth rate in England and Wales since 1945 would show a post-World War II "baby boom", peaking in the mid-1960s.

This period of high fertility was driven by a combination of factors: economic prosperity, social optimism and a desire to rebuild families after the war.

However, the late 1960s and the 1970s saw a sharp decline. The legalisation of abortion in the 1960s, the wider availability of contraception through the NHS, and the economic recession of the early 1970s all played significant roles.

After this decline, the birth rate remained relatively stable for several decades, going up slightly in the booming 1980s, down in the recession-hit 1990s and up again in the economic good times of the 2000s.

The most critical period, for our purposes, begins around 2012. From this point onward, we see a sustained and significant decrease in both the live birth rate and the total fertility rate.

The figures are stark and speak for themselves:

• Between 2012 and 2023 (the last year for which fully audited figures are available), the number of live births fell 19% in England & Wales.

• In 2012, 729,674 children were born. In 2023, 591,072 children were born.

• That is 138,602 fewer children needing a school place – the equivalent of 2,310 two-form-entry primary schools

• Over that time the TFR fell by a greater proportion – dropping 26% from 1.94 to 1.44.

Several interconnected factors contributed to this decline:

• Economic Uncertainty: The 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent period of austerity measures had a profound impact on household finances and confidence. Economic insecurity often leads people to delay or forgo having children in developed countries.

• Brexit: The economic uncertainty surrounding Brexit, and its longer-term impact on the UK economy, has also been a contributing factor.

• COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic created unprecedented social and economic disruption, further exacerbating existing trends.

• Cost-of-Living Crisis: The surge in inflation following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the cost of living has placed additional financial strain on families, making having children less affordable.
  

Don't be reassured by crude headline figures

It's crucial to understand that this decline isn't entirely uniform across the UK.

Some regions are experiencing much more dramatic falls in live birth rates than others. Areas with high housing costs, such as London and parts of the South East, have been particularly affected.

But it is equally important to understand that regional variations in live birth rates mask the extent of the admissions challenge for schools.

School leaders in regions with lower live birth rate falls, such as the East of England and the East Midlands, might feel less anxious than leaders in other regions if they simply relied on the live birth rate for their demographic insights.

They would be significantly more anxious if they looked at the TFR. This is because when you look at the TFR, the variation between regions virtually disappears.

If you were one of the school leaders in the East of England, the North West or the East Midlands who was reassured by an article on regional live birth rate variations in TES in April 2025, then I have bad news for you... TES wasn't looking at the relevant numbers.

TES was right to point out that the ONS figures per region in England & Wales show you that the number of live births fell 15.3% in the East of England, 17.3% in the North West and 17.4% in the East Midlands between 2012 and 2023.

Those figures tell you that the fall in the number of live births was much higher in London (22.3%) and Wales (22.3%) over that time.

But when you look at the TFR (the important figure), the gap almost disappears.

Between 2012 and 2023, the TFR fell 24.3% in the East of England, 24.7% in the North West and 26.2% in the East Midlands. In London, the TFR fall over that period was very similar – 26.6%. In Wales it was 26.1%.

What is going on here? And why does it affect schools?

Well, the reason for the lower live birth rate falls in some regions is that large amounts of relatively affordable housing have been built.

If massive new estates are built, then people will move there (often from other regions where there is less new housing and it is much less affordable).

Many more people means many more children.

In theory, this never matters.... more children is more children.

But in practice it always does, because more homes means new schools built thanks to mandated developer contributions to infrastructure in new communities.

In these areas, the number of children needing schools has fallen at a lower rate than in other areas – but the advantage is levelled out by the increased capacity in the school system.

There might be more kids, but many more places have been created in schools - which means headteachers in Lambeth and Brighton are facing exactly the same issue of empty classrooms as those in Peterborough, Northampton and Warrington.

A gloomy future?

What will happen in the future? Will we see a return to previous live birth rate and TFR levels?

Throughout the 2010s, the ONS had been predicting a stabilisation in birth rates.

However, events conspired to ensure that birth rates kept falling. Brexit, Covid, Ukraine… stuff happened to confound the predictions.

The consensus on UK birth rates has now changed among experts in this country and internationally.

The consensus now is that birth rates will not rise significantly from current levels for decades to come.

This is seen in a 2025 report by the ONS which suggests women who are currently at the start of their reproductive lifespan will not have children at a greater rate, nor will subsequent generations. The United Nations is predicting a similar situation for the UK and most other Western democracies.

2024 birth rates: Bouncing back to the boom times?

Birth rate data released at the start of July 2025 by the ONS shows that the number of live births in England & Wales rose by 0.6% between 2023 and 2024.

But school leaders should not jump on this and see it as the start of a significant rise in birth rates and a climb back towards 2012 levels.

This would be a mistake for a couple of reasons…Firstly, it would take 30 years of 0.6% rises to get us back to the 2012 number of live births.

Secondly, subsequent analysis of its own 2024 figures by the ONS found that the TFR actually fell from 1.44 in 2023 to 1.41 2024, with the ONS concluding that the very small increase in the number of live births was down to a higher general population (a combination of women born at the start of the last birth rate boom starting to have babies and high immigration).

School leaders should see the 2024 figures as the start of a period of stabilisation of the birth rate at current levels that is completely in line with the experts’ predictions.

They should see it as the start of a process of an embedding of a ‘new demographic normal’ – with the birth rate edging up for a couple of years and then edging down again for the next couple.

That said…. the experts were clearly wrong when they predicted a stabilisation in the birth rate at various points in the 2010s.

They could be wrong with their current predictions. The birth rate could rise again.

But, for that to happen, we would, it has been widely argued, need a sustained period of really significant economic growth in the world and in this country, specific initiatives and investment around starting families from successive governments, much higher levels of immigration over a long period, or a combination of all three.

It is hard to be confident that this is going to happen.

The picture being painted by experts is of a society in which a profound and enduring change has taken place. This is not a little local anomaly that will correct itself. This is a demographic earthquake that will be damaging across society – the education system included. It necessitates a proactive and strategic approach to marketing and admissions.